The Impact of Hiring Slowdown on the CRE Market & Return to Office

By: Nick Schlanger – Director of Research Services, NAI Hiffman

Recent economic data highlights key trends affecting CRE office demand, and the return to office push. Right now, we are seeing a slowing job market, with fewer active postings and cooling hiring trends.

Chicago’s economy is expanding, but employment data signals caution. Unemployment dropped to 4.4% last quarter, but total employment declined by 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, meaning job losses are outpacing new hires.

At the same time, active job postings fell by 5.3%, a sign that businesses may be scaling back hiring plans.

This creates a clear dichotomy: on one hand, reduced hiring and corporate belt-tightening lead to lower office demand, as companies delay expansions and reassess their real estate footprints.

On the other hand, the weaker job market strengthens employers’ leverage to enforce return-to-office policies.

With fewer alternative opportunities, employees are less likely to push back against in-office mandates, giving companies an opening to reestablish pre-pandemic work norms.

This paradox means that while overall office demand may soften, workplace flexibility is increasingly at risk as businesses seize the moment to regain control.

Notably, several prominent companies have mandated increased in-office attendance , including: Amazon, AT&T, JPMorgan Chase, Salesforce, Dell, and Goldman Sachs.

For businesses and real estate professionals, monitoring hiring trends and return to office momentum will be just as important as tracking vacancy rates and absorption. If hiring rebounds in Q2, demand for office and industrial space could follow suit. But if employers continue to slow expansion, we may see a more cautious leasing environment in 2025.

Hiffman’s brokerage services offer the market expertise and experience needed to navigate this turbulent market. Whether searching for expansion or downsizing, our clients benefit from personalized service that always keeps their best interests at heart of everything we do.

For companies in search of better ways to utilize their current space, Hiffman National’s Workplace Solutions team provides programming and space planning services to help understand your companies needs and maximize office efficiency. From office layouts to interior design, Workplace Solutions offers tailored services to make our clients’ lives easier in every facet of their office design.

About Hiffman National: 

Based in the Chicago area, with an additional five regional hubs and 30 satellite offices, Hiffman National provides superior property management, project services and accounting services to a diverse portfolio including office, medical office, retail and industrial properties nationally. The firm’s comprehensive property management platform and attentive approach to service contributes to client NOI and has helped the firm to more than double in size in five years. Hiffman National is an award-winning company with more than 250 employees strategically located throughout North America.

About NAI Hiffman:  

NAI Hiffman is one of the largest independent commercial real estate services firms in the US, with a primary focus on metropolitan Chicago, and part of the NAI Global network. We provide institutional and private leasing, property management, tenant representation, capital markets, project services, research, and marketing services for owners and occupiers of commercial real estate. To meet our clients’ growing needs outside of our exclusive NAI Hiffman territory, we launched Hiffman National, our dedicated property solutions division, which provides property management, project services, and property accounting services across the country. NAI Hiffman | Hiffman National is and award winning company headquartered in suburban Chicago, with more than 250 employees strategically located throughout North America.